Yukio Hatoyama: the China-US confrontation lies not in the difference in values, but in the narrowed gap in national strength

Source: WFF    

Published: 2021-5-13

On May 12th, 2021,The Belt and Road Forum for International Financial Cooperation and the 4rd World Finance Forum, was successfully held in Xi’an city, China. It was co-hosted by the World Finance Forum and the People’s Government of Shaanxi Province. As one of the important events of the Fifth Silk Road International Expo, the forum, with the theme of “Towards an open, inclusive, and shared future for the financial cooperation, sustainable investment and green finance within the Belt and Road Initiative”, aims to jointly build an international platform for the shared financial cooperation and innovative development among the Belt and Road countries.

“The China-U.S. confrontation has not only slowed down the world's economic recovery amid the COVID-19 pandemic but also destroyed the regional security environment” , former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said at the opening ceremony of the Belt and Road Forum for International Financial Cooperation and the 4rd World Finance Forum.

The forum attracted more than 200 global political and business elites from countries including China, the U.S., Russia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and the United Arab Emirates, discussing issues like Belt and Road financial cooperation, the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, combating climate change, as well as current China-U.S. relations.

The following is the keynote address of Mr. Yukio Hatoyama at the Belt and Road Forum for International Financial Cooperation and the 4rd World Finance Forum:

Hello, I’m Yukio Hatoyama.

On the occasion of the opening ceremony of the Belt and Road International Financial Cooperation Forum held by the People’s Government of Shaanxi Province and the World Finance Forum. I would like to extend my warm congratulations for this Forum. Since the COVID-19 broke out last year, the whole world has suffered from a grim situation. In this context, numerous difficulties must have been gone through for the opening of this Forum. Thus, I would like to express my sincere respect and gratitude to people who have been working hard for this Forum.

There is no doubt that in today’s international relations, China-US relations have drawn the most attention. After Donald Trump left office, the Biden administration adopted the word “competition” to describe their relationship with China instead of the former one, “confrontation”, but the tension between China and the US still rises. The US government is keen to interpret the confrontation between China and the US as the opposition of values. However, the origin of such a confrontation lies in the Thucydides Trap, a term used in international politics. That means the suspicion and disputes arising from the gradually narrowed gap in national strength between the emerging power and the existing power.

Nowadays, China’s nominal GDP equals about 70% that of the US and it is estimated that China will overtake the US in terms of GDP by 2028. Even if China is a democratic country, the confrontation will remain unchanged. It may sound ridiculous now, but in 1980s, there was a rumor that Japan’s economy surpassed that of the US. Back then, Japan was not only a democratic country, but also an ally of the US. However, the US still regarded Japan as its rival and even an enemy to a certain extend. Thus, the China-US confrontation lies not in the difference in values, but in the narrowed gap in national strength.

Compared with the Trump administration, the Biden administration attaches more importance to seeking for allies and partners to contend with China. However, those allies and partners of the US also have important economic or geopolitical ties with China. Basically there is no country that would like to take the risk of going against China for being friend with the US. For enterprises, the supply chain used for distribution of components and raw materials has close connection with the huge consumer market of China. Even if the government advocates readjustment, enterprises may not be able to follow the call.

Today’s Japanese government still has a close relationship with the US. Thus, it is even difficult for Japan to handle its relations with China and the US. All in all, the future of China-US relations depends on their sci-tech strength. Both sides are well aware of it, and have made huge investment in developing sci-tech competitiveness.

During the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, the later one failed with a decrease in economy (and ended the Cold War with its dissolution.) But today’s China and the US would never end up like that. It can be expected that the competition in technology investment between China and the US would last for quite a long time. I have always held a negative attitude towards the intensification of China-US confrontation. To be more specific, I’m even disgusted with it. China-US confrontation has not only slowed down the world economic recovery amid the darkness of the pandemic, but also destroyed the regional security environment. All of these are of no good.

The US must decrease its hostility to China. If the US can work with China, or compete with China in a benign way, the world economy and strategic stability will benefit tremendously from it. Meanwhile, China should not leave opportunities for the US. China has made a great achievement in improving its soft power of culture. For example, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) put forward by Chinese President Xi Jinping. If this Initiative could facilitate the economic development of countries along the Belt and Road with win-win results and accelerate poverty alleviation in developing countries in a steady manner, discussions on matters such as China Threat Theory will disappear in a flash.

Although the Japanese government and enterprises haven’t declared their stands on BRI, I personally hope that Japan could actively participate in it and contribute to its comprehensive success together with China. As advocated by President Xi, the world is a community with a shared future for mankind. This concept has been perfectly proved through the global spread of COVID-19 and other global environmental issues. All human beings are living in the same community with a shared future. Thus, we should carry forward the spirit of “benevolence” and “forgiveness” advocated by Confucius, namely, the spirit of “friendship” as I call it. All the mankind should cooperate with each other and strive to realize the BRI in the “spirit of friendship”. These are my views on the current international situation.

At last, I sincerely wish the Belt and Road International Financial Cooperation Forum a complete success.

Thank you.